Effect of cultivation time on soil heavy metal accumulation and bioavailability in Phyllostachys praecox stands

Phyllostachys praecox is a bamboo species cultivated for edible shoots under intensive management. However, the potential pollution risk of heavy metals in bamboo soils is not clear under the intensive management for a long term. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of cultivation time on soil heavy metal accumulation and bioavailability in bamboo stands subjected to intensive management. Soil samples were collected from a chronosequence of bamboo stands which had been cultivated for 0, 1, 2, 4, 8, and 10 years in Lin''an, Zhejiang Province of China. Eight heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Pb, Ni, Cr, Cd, As, and Hg) present in the soil were selected, and their potential pollution risk was evaluated by chemical speciation analysis. Possible heavy metal sources were explored using multivariate and cluster analysis. Our results showed that Zn, Cu, Hg, and Cd contents in the soil increased with the cultivation time, while Ni, Cr, Pb, and As levels were similar among all stands. Furthermore, the bioavailabilities of all analyzed heavy metals increased with the cultivation time. Multivariate and cluster analysis showed that sources of Ni, Cr, Pb, and As were likely lithogenic in origin, whereas input of Zn, Cu, Hg, and Cd was mainly due to cultivation practices. Current bamboo management strategies raised the potential risks of heavy metal pollution in bamboo shoots in the long term. Soil acidification in P. praecox stands induced by intensive cultivation should be controlled since it stimulated and improved the bioavailability of heavy metals. Appropriate management strategies should thus be adopted to ensure safe and sustainable production of bamboo shoots.     

Random-effects linear model application to herd-level assessment of bovine hepatic trace mineral concentrations

To evaluate the utility of random-effects linear modeling for herd-level evaluation of trace mineral status, we performed a retrospective analysis of the results for trace mineral testing of bovine liver samples submitted to the Michigan State University Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory between 2011 and 2017. Our aim was to examine random-effects models for their potential utility in improving interpretation with minimal sample numbers. The database consisted of 1,658 animals distributed among 121 herds. Minerals were assayed by inductively coupled plasma–mass spectroscopy, and included cobalt, copper, iron, molybdenum, manganese, selenium, and zinc. Intraclass correlation coefficients for each mineral were significantly different (p < 0.001) from zero and ranged from 0.38 for manganese to 0.82 for selenium, indicating that the strength of herd effects, which are presumably related to diet, vary greatly by mineral. Analysis of the distribution and standard errors of best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP) values suggested that testing 5–10 animals per herd could place herds within 10 percentile units across the population of herds with 70–95% confidence, the confidence level varying among minerals. Herd means were generally similar to BLUPs, suggesting that means could be reasonably compared to BLUPs with respect to the distributions reported here. However, caution in interpreting means relative to BLUPs should be exercised when animal numbers are small, the standard errors of the means are large, and/or the values are near the extremes of the distribution.     

美国油气管道基本失效概率评估方法及启示

为充分利用油气管道历史失效数据,减少失效概率评估过程中的主观性,提出油气管道基本失效概率的概念及评估方法。对美国管道及危险物品安全管理局数据库的油气管道里程数据、事故数据及失效因素数据进行全面分析,采用基于事故统计的方法评估油气管道基本失效概率。结果表明:美国危险液体管道、输气集气管道、配气管道发生一般事故的基本失效概率分别为1.29次/(10^3 km·a)、2.17次/(10^4 km·a)及4.08次/(10^5 km·a),发生较大事故的基本失效概率分别为4.58次/(10^4 km·a)、1.41次/(10^4 km·a)及2.38次/(10^5 km·a),发生重大事故的基本失效概率分别为9.09次/(10^6 km·a)、9.79次/(10^6 km·a)及1.11次/(10^5 km·a)。美国基本失效概率可作为油气管道失效概率评估的基准线,也可作为风险可接受标准的依据,但不能直接应用于中国管道风险评价,需对其进行修正,建立适用于中国管道的失效数据库。     

HJ-1CCD与Landsat-8OLI在呼伦贝尔草原区FPAR反演中的比较分析

光合有效辐射吸收比率(Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation,FPAR)是主要的植物生理参数之一。本研究根据地面实测数据和由HJ-1CCD(Charge-coupled Device,CCD)及Landsat-8OLI(Operational Land Imager,OLI)影像提取的NDVI,分别建立研究区FPAR估算模型,对比分析和评价了CCD和OLI数据在反演研究区FPAR的精度。结果表明,基于CCD和OLI数据计算的NDVI与实测FPAR之间均呈现良好的正相关关系;针对每个基本采样单元(Elementary Sampling Units,ESU),两种数据反演的FPAR具有显著的一致性,且反演值相差甚少;剔除影像中受到云和云影影响的区域,整个研究区利用CCD与OLI数据反演的FPAR相关性好、分布趋势一致,且反演值均值差很小。本研究结果对该区域FPAR的进一步研究具有借鉴和指导意义,在以后的研究中可以尝试使用HJ-1CCD数据。     

Geographic Information System‐Based Analysis of the Spatial and Spatio‐Temporal Distribution of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Golestan Province,North‐East of Iran

Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL), a vector‐borne disease, poses serious psychological as well as social and economic burden to many rural areas of Iran. The main objectives of this study were to analyse yearly spatial distribution and the possible spatial and spatio‐temporal clusters of the disease to better understand spatio‐temporal epidemiological aspects of ZCL in rural areas of an endemic province, located in north‐east of Iran. Cross‐sectional survey was performed on 2983 recorded cases during the period of 2010–2012 at village level throughout the study area. Global clustering methods including the average nearest‐neighbour distance, Moran's I, general G indices and Ripley's K‐function were applied to investigate the annual spatial distribution of the existing point patterns. Presence of spatial and spatio‐temporal clusters was investigated using the spatial and space–time scan statistics. For each year, semivariogram analysis and all global clustering methods indicated meaningful persistent spatial autocorrelation and highly clustered distribution of ZCL, respectively. Eight significant spatial clusters, mainly located in north and northeast of the province, and one space–time cluster, observed in northern part of the province and during the period of September 2010–November 2010, were detected. Comparison of the location of ZCL clusters with environmental conditions of the study area showed that 97.8% of cases in clusters were located at low altitudes below 725 m above sea level with predominantly arid and semi‐arid climates and poor socio‐economic conditions. The identified clusters highlight high‐risk areas requiring special plans and resources for more close monitoring and control of the disease.     

森林病虫害监测预报软件的开发及应用

森林病虫害监测预报软件是一套用于对测报数据进行统计分析的工具，它包含了农林病虫害监测预报工作中常用的40多种分析方法，本文详细介绍了森林病虫害监测预报软件的开发过程及应用技术。     

A family of segmented polynomial functions for modelling the border effect on the diameter growth of Ayous (Triplochiton scleroxylon K. Schum)

This paper introduces a family of four segmented (or grafted) polynomial functions for modelling the decrease in the diameter of Ayous (Triplochiton scleroxylon K. Schum) with distance from the border of the plantation. The functions, each comprising two segments of second degree or less, were fitted to data collected in the Cameroon rain forest. A comparative assessment of the fit was carried out using criteria such as mean deviation, root mean squared deviation, and fit index.

The border effect extended to 10 m inside the plantation where a 50% decrease in diameter occurred. Beyond that distance, the diameter appeared to be stable except for random variation. The estimated functions performed equally well as they all provided a good fit to the data, with a small bias. Most importantly, they proved to be flexible and thus adaptable to a wide variety of situations.

Recommendations are made concerning setting up a guard area and ways of improving the silviculture of Ayous. Also, the possibilities for an agrisilvipastoral system are explored.     

Multiscale spatial variation of the bark beetle Ips sexdentatus damage in a pine plantation forest (Landes de Gascogne,Southwestern France)

Bark beetles are notorious pests of natural and planted forests causing extensive damage. These insects depend on dead or weakened trees but can switch to healthy trees during an outbreak as mass-attacks allow the beetle to overwhelm tree defences. Climatic events like windstorms are known to favour bark beetle outbreaks because they create a large number of breeding sites, i.e., weakened trees and for this reason, windthrown timber is generally preventively harvested and removed. In December 1999, the southwest of France was struck by a devastating windstorm that felled more that 27 million m³of timber. This event offered the opportunity to study large-scale spatial pattern of trees attacked by the bark beetle Ips sexdentatus and its relationship with the spatial location of pine logs that were temporally stored in piles along stand edges during the post-storm process of fallen tree removal. The study was undertaken in a pure maritime pine forest of 1300 ha in 2001 and 2002. We developed a landscape approach based on a GIS and a complete inventory of attacked trees. During this study more than 70% of the investigated stands had at least one tree attacked by I. sexdentatus  . Spatial aggregation prevailed in stands with n≥15$n\ge 15$ attacked trees. Patches of attacked trees were identified using a kernel estimation procedure coupled with randomization tests. Attacked trees formed patches of 500–700 m² on average which displayed a clumped spatial distribution. Log piles stemming from the sanitation removals were mainly distributed along the large access roads and showed an aggregated spatial pattern as well. The spatial relationship between patches of attacked trees and log pile storage areas was analyzed by means of the Ripley’s statistic that revealed a strong association at the scale of the studied forest. Our results indicated that bark beetle attacks were facilitated in the vicinity of areas where pine logs were stored. The spatial extent of this relationship was >1000 m. Similar results were obtained in 2001 and 2002 despite differences in the number and spatial distribution of attacked trees. The presence of a strong “facilitation effect” suggests that log piles should be removed quickly in order to prevent outbreaks of bark beetles.     

Characterisation of and changes in the atmospheric deposition situation in German forest ecosystems using multivariate statistics

Based on the results of the atmospheric deposition classification of the year 1989, a methodical approach should be introduced, which—based on the modelled total deposition rates—enables us to characterise the input situation of forest monitoring plots and to delimit load areas in Germany. In 1989, the deposition situation in nearly 1,800 forest monitoring sites (BZE/extensive Soil Condition Inventory) in Germany could be explained by four factors (or three, excluding sea salt impact) with the help of a factor analysis. The factor values were grouped into six deposition types with typical compounds and regional patterns. The classified input rates of the soil inventory plots adequately represent the stress situation and deposition changes in Germany. The application of the statistical approach on the level of Brandenburg clarifies the special local input situation. Due to the special combination of deposed elements, the sources of emissions can be characterised as well. When the soil inventory is repeated, a project planned for 2006, this approach can be used in order to determine homogenous areas for stratified data evaluation.     

森林资源连续清查进界木与漏测木确定标准的研究

对森林资源连续清查中进界木和漏测木传统确定方法进行分析，指出其存在的随意性和缺乏科学性、明确性；提出应用数理统计方法，通过对已往取得数据的分析，制定出科学、合理、明确的标准。并以云南省2002年森林资源连续清查中楚雄州云南松检尺数据对这一方法进行了具体分析。